International visitor spending in the Middle East will increase by $116bn, or 57%, between 2025 and 2030, according to the ATM Travel Trends Report 2026 presented in Dubai on September 16.
The forecast is built on an expectation that the current year’s disruption proves temporary. Tourism Economics, which produced the report with Arabian Travel Market, projects international travel across the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia growing 17% in 2027 against 8% globally, and finds that recovery periods after major travel shocks have shortened from around 24 months in the early 2000s to 10 to 12 months.
By 2030 the MENASA region is forecast to reach 316mn international arrivals and 2.3bn visitor nights, generating $408bn in spending, increases of 36%, 46% and 55% respectively on 2025.
Travel volumes across the region in 2025 ran almost 50% above 2019 levels, three times the global rate of growth, with the region accounting for more than half of the worldwide increase in international travel over the period. Globally, visitor nights reached 24bn in 2025, 16% above 2019, in-destination spending rose 26% on 2019 to $7.2tn and international arrivals passed 1.5bn for the first time.
“Over the next five years we see travel expanding on a structural basis rather than just a cyclical rebound,” said Dave Goodger, managing director for EMEA at Tourism Economics, who presented the findings and pointed to demographics, rising wealth and sustained investment in capacity.
Long-haul markets are expected to drive the increase, with leisure nights from China to the Middle East forecast to rise 160% by 2030.
The report finds 91% of Middle East travel businesses piloting or operating artificial intelligence systems, with 85% reporting measurable cost savings. Prospective visitors to the region are more than twice as likely to have used an AI chatbot to plan a trip, at 28% against 12% of travellers interested in other regions.
Eddy Tannous, chief operating officer of Rotana Hotel Management Corporation, told a panel session that Dubai had roughly 45,000 hotel keys in 2008 and now has closer to 160,000 to 170,000, with Abu Dhabi at around 55,000.
The 33rd edition of Arabian Travel Market runs to September 17 at Dubai World Trade Centre.