Spain is on course to attract 100mn foreign visitors in 2026, with industry figures attributing part of the expected surge to travellers diverting away from the Middle East, the BBC reported on June 8.
The country drew a record 97mn international arrivals in 2025 and remains the world’s second-largest tourism destination behind France.
Initial forecasts had pointed to more modest growth in 2026, but the regional instability has positioned Spain as a safer alternative to destinations such as Dubai, Turkey and Cyprus, lifting bookings beyond expectations.
Spain received 9.1mn international visitors in April, a record for the month and 5.2% higher than a year earlier.
The shift is visible elsewhere in the sector. Dubai International Airport recorded a 66% drop in passenger numbers in March as flights and bookings were curtailed by the situation in Iran.
“Any time that you have a crisis in the [eastern] Mediterranean or the Middle East, Spain is seen as a secure place to go,” said Francisco Femenia-Serra, a lecturer in geography at Madrid’s Complutense University, who noted that price-sensitive travellers who would normally choose Turkey or Egypt may end up in Spain.
Tourism contributes 13% of Spanish GDP and has helped the economy outpace France, Germany, Italy and the UK in recent years. Rising fuel costs are one risk to the outlook, with the potential to curb European foreign travel.
Domestic opposition presents a further challenge. Barcelona, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands have seen repeated protests against high visitor numbers since 2024, with residents linking tourism to congestion, environmental strain and a worsening housing crisis. Barcelona has said it will revoke the licences of all 10,000 short-term apartments by 2028 and will double its tourist tax to €8 for cruise passengers on short stays.
In December the government fined Airbnb €65mn ($75.5mn) for advertising unlicensed apartments, after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez warned there were too many holiday lets and too few homes.
Why it matters for the trade
Spain’s path towards 100mn arrivals confirms a redistribution of demand that agents and operators can plan around. The redirection of price-led travellers from the eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf means stronger inventory pressure on Spanish coastal and city product through the peak season, and operators holding Spanish allocation are well placed to capture the overflow from Turkey, Egypt and Dubai. The April record suggests the shift is already feeding through to bookings rather than sitting in forecasts.
The regulatory tightening is the offsetting risk. Barcelona’s plan to strip all 10,000 short-term lets by 2028, alongside permit restrictions elsewhere and the doubled cruise tax, will reshape accommodation supply in the most exposed cities and push more demand towards licensed hotel stock.
Agents selling apartment product in regulated hubs should expect availability to thin and prices to firm, and should check licence status before confirming bookings.
The broader signal is volatility. Demand built on Middle East instability can reverse as quickly as it arrived, and rising fuel costs could blunt European appetite for foreign travel. The trade should treat the 2026 windfall as cyclical rather than structural, and watch the anti-tourism backlash closely, as social licence in Spain’s flagship destinations is now a live commercial variable.