The global travel retail market is forecast to reach $187.1bn by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 9.6% from a base of $52.7bn in 2021, according to a report published by Allied Market Research on April 22.
The growth is being driven by rising international passenger volumes, sustained demand for duty-free and luxury goods, and the expansion of airport retail infrastructure across both developed and developing economies. Travel retail covers sales at airports, seaports, railway stations, cruise liners and border shops, operating in either duty-free or duty-paid environments.
The duty-free segment holds the largest share of the market but operators are increasingly pushing into high-footfall domestic travel corridors through duty-paid sales. Digital pre-ordering and AI-driven personalisation are reshaping the in-store experience, with omnichannel strategies becoming standard among major operators.
The projections assume a continued recovery in international travel, though the report was compiled before the full impact of the Iran conflict on global aviation and fuel costs became clear. Current disruptions to flight schedules and the doubling of jet fuel prices may temper near-term growth, particularly in markets dependent on long-haul passenger traffic.
For travel retail operators and airport concession holders in emerging markets, the forecast underlines the commercial opportunity in capturing a larger share of passenger spend as new terminal capacity comes online across the Middle East, South-East Asia and Africa.