Capacity at UAE full-service carriers remains 15% to 25% below pre-war levels while low-cost operators are recovering faster and should end 2026 close to their 2025 capacity, according to research by VIDEC presented at Arabian Travel Market in Dubai on September 17.
The UAE market opened 2026 strongly on the back of growth between 2023 and 2025, particularly at the low-cost carriers, before setbacks from March, said Virendra Jain, chief executive and co-founder of VIDEC. Point-to-point operators serving short-haul regional demand are leading the rebound, including local carriers alongside Air India Express, flynas and IndiGo, since that segment returns first.
Online penetration of the UAE air market is forecast to rise from 42% in 2025 to 46% this year and 52% by 2030, with the local point-of-sale air market reaching $6.5bn by the end of the decade, driven by online channels and a recovery in corporate demand. Tourism Economics told the same event that international visitor spending across the Middle East will rise by $116bn by 2030, with regional travel growing 17% next year against 8% globally.
VIDEC puts the UAE at $55bn in gross booking value in 2025 across local and global points of sale, making it the region’s largest air market.
UAE airports handled around 160mn passengers in 2025, with low-cost carriers taking 35% of traffic. Budget carrier volumes rose 81% to 56mn from 31mn in 2019, while network carriers took 103mn passengers against 97mn in 2019.
MakeMyTrip held its lead in the UAE air online travel agency market in 2026, supported by South Asian diaspora traffic and higher fares, with Trip.com growing quickly to second place since entering the market more recently. Booking.com and Agoda together hold around 70% of the hotel online agency market.
Carriers and destinations have used the fair to rebuild distribution, with Emirates signing an agreement with the Ras Al Khaimah Tourism Development Authority and Etihad Airways agreeing to link air and rail journeys with Etihad Rail.
The findings come from VIDEC’s GCC and Egypt travel market sizing and online travel agency benchmarking study covering 2019 to 2030.