Caroline Bremmer from Travel Forward
IATA predicts 10 billion air passengers flying by 2050 – but what will the price be on people, planet and places?
Looking through three lenses: growth, climate and equity, Travel Forward is in full transformation, having rebranded from the Travel Foundation. Its primary purpose is to promote the sustainability and wellbeing of destinations and their communities.
I support its work as a Data Insights Specialist, where thought leadership plays a critical role in the charity’s offer. This was a perfect next step for me after three decades working in travel research for an international organisation. I was looking to work with a purpose-driven organisation and Travel Forward fits the bill by supporting communities, driving resilience, adaptation and mitigation through strategic foresight, collaboration and capacity building.
Meeting a need for trends, data and insights
Destinations and travel businesses – their core target market – are always hungry for insights. On travellers, on destinations. Yet what we produce together are not just more of the same old trends, these are impact-focused insights to sharpen travel businesses and destinations’ ability to adapt to market forces, long term shifts and mega trends shaping the future of travel.
We have developed a distinct offer, focusing on the three key pillars of the non-profit’s strategy: growth, climate and equity. These are the lenses that we look through for all our activities. It is not always easy to find the positive when it comes to climate action vs inaction, inequity vs equity and fair vs unjust transition. That is our core remit to speak truth to power, flag fault lines and navigate a way forward in the face of so much uncertainty. We use our voice to pinpoint gaps and tensions in travel and tourism so that our clients and partners can mitigate risks and devise optimal strategies for success.
There has been a solid build of research in the past six months: blog posts and Insight Bite videocasts with the team at Travel Forward every month, mapping data and insights. Where there are intersections, conflicts and discrepancies leads to some fascinating insights to explore.
Trends to watch: growth on steroids
There is one trend that just keeps on giving – growth – but at what cost in terms of the climate and equity. IATA says that there are already 5 billion air passengers flying around the world, and that level is set to double by 2050.
The paradox at the heart of tourism is striking, where increasing visitation leads to ever-increasing emissions, as the means to decarbonise are not being implemented fast enough. Adaptation drives resilience but on its own does not solve the climate crisis.
Through our impact insight work, we explore the tensions at play in the travel industry, where the growth of 5.2% revenue-passengers-kilometres (RPK) contrasts sharply to the 6.8% in carbon emissions growth in 2025 (IATA/Global Carbon Budget). As travellers continue to move, what is the ultimate sacrifice that the planet will make faced with accelerating climate impacts and extreme weather events? In the worst case, some destinations are not just on the front-line of climate change but face extinction such as archipelago nations like the Maldives and Tuvalu threatened by submersion.
The reality is that visitors tend to be attracted to the old favourites in terms of honey pot destinations, where over three-quarters of travellers (77%) revisit the same destinations for at least 20% of their holidays according to Skyscanner
Building out shoulder and off-seasonality is one way to help spread tourism revenues through-out the year to relieve over-tourism pressures. Equally, focusing on ways to disperse visitors from top-tier destinations to lesser well known emerging secondary and tertiary locations is another important dispersal strategy.
Traveller trends are already showing the interest from consumers in going off the well-trodden path to explore quieter places. It’s a significant trend, where Mastercard’s 2026 Travel Trendline survey found 84% of solo travellers express interest in off-the-beaten-path or emerging destinations, compared to 78% of those traveling with others.
With travel behaviours changing due to pressures such as overtourism, extreme weather and rising costs to name but a few factors, there are great opportunities for destinations and travel businesses to harness new behaviours to their benefit. Great examples are those destinations like Greece looking beyond the mass market to target higher spending visitors such as adventure, culture and wellness and promoting emerging destinations whilst expanding into an all-year-round offer. The launch of its new Special Spatial Framework in 2026 illustrates the ambition to transform tourism into a sustainable and resilient sector by combating overtourism, safeguarding nature and creating thriving communities.
However, communities are often grateful for a brief break from visitation, so it’s important to get residents onboard first with any seasonality expansion strategies.
Growth at any cost is so last century. Destinations and businesses tackling the climate emergency by going B Corp, signing up to GSTC certification and embracing science based targets are leading the charge when it comes to climate action and justice.
Trends to watch: climate change impacts already here
From the headlines, we can see that climate change is not a far distant threat – it is here and now. The figures are stark: 390m hectares were burned by wildfire in 2025 (World Resources Institute) – an area nearly the size of the EU – at a value of USD224 billion in damage costs (UNDRR).
Despite the sustainable development goals and the Glasgow Declaration on Tourism, the climate adaptation gap is enormous. Mascontour’s survey data shows that 65% expect a significant impact from climate change, yet only 18% of DMOs have some form of climate adaptation strategy. In addition, there is a significant funding gap in terms of adaptation as well, with USD310 billion required per year by 2035 (UNEP) which countries are struggling to fill.
Climate risks are compounding making the challenge to adapt ever more difficult and there may be many destinations that fall behind the frontrunners. Travel Forward’s partnership with RiskScan is a great example of positive action, with the aim of building destination resilience, mitigating risks and creating a thriving tourism sector through data forecasting and scenario planning.
The Canary Islands’ RegNext initiative goes one step further in terms of funding models with its voluntary regeneration fund focused on the UK source market. It is a cross-industry collaboration between government and the private sector funding island regeneration, community resilience, biodiversity restoration, creating the right kind of tourism. This forward-looking business model clearly illustrates that no one organisation can act alone and having a shared funding mechanism is a good first step in future-proofing destinations.
Climate shaping visitor demand
While destinations may find they are playing catch up to climate impacts, traveller demand is already being shaped and transformed by climate change.
According to Booking.com, 42% of respondents in their survey are shifting off-peak and 25% are seeking cooler destinations. Coolcations are a long term trend, where the EU Joint Research Centre predicts that under a higher warming scenario, Southern Europe will experience a drop of 10% in demand during summer season at coastal locations, compared to a 5% increase for Northern Europe. The coolcation has longevity, and behind its cool name, sits an uncomfortable truth that there will be winners and losers in the long term.
During the summer, Europe is experiencing extreme heat as seen with heatwaves that have plagued the continent this year with tragic consequences. The young, old, those with underlying health conditions and disadvantaged are the most at risk, where extreme heat accounts for around 500,000 heat-related deaths each year based on WHO data.
Going forward Generations Alpha and Beta are the ones that will be most exposed to global warming, and already young people are changing their behaviour due to climate change effects. Namely, 79% of European Gen Z changed their travel behaviour for climate reasons according to the European Travel Commission in 2025.
Trends to watch: equity at the heart of tourism
Climate justice takes many shapes and forms and is a complex concept to grasp. The work that Travel Forward does in this space is so important, where Impact Insights help to showcase the true scale of inequity at play in the sector by demystifying what equity really means.
In essence, it comes down to the size of the prize and how much of that is fairly distributed. Travel and tourism as an industry is valued at USD10 trillion, according to WTTC, which is a staggering 10.5% of global GDP. Yet in the most emerging and developing countries, leakage of tourism revenues runs at around 50-80%, where that money leaves the country either through spending on imports, using international travel companies or repatriated profits. In Jamaica’s case, only 40 cents in every dollar stays in the country – the rest vanishes.
That sense of injustice reverberates across communities, where the wrong type of tourism has proliferated: mass tourism that promotes extraction; short term rentals that cause housing crises; low-paid and seasonal work; and where capacity levels have been breached.
To combat these challenges, destinations are turning to segments such as adventure travel that have greater equity built into their business model, by using local guides, accommodation and tending to be off the beaten track. According to the Adventure Travel Trade Association, 85% of tourism spending stays locally when spending with adventure travel in 2026.
Other forms of highly equitable tourism are run by Indigenous People, where the segment for Indigenous tourism is valued at USD67bn based on WTTC.
Indigenous-led tourism is simultaneously a conservation model with a strong climate/biodiversity remit and community-owned by definition.
By creating strong equity linkages with communities, many of tourism’s challenges can be prevented including over-tourism and anti-tourism sentiment. Letting residents have a voice is part of driving that positive loop.
Important intersections at play
Some of the best examples of tourism are where growth, climate and equity are in harmony, taking place at the forefront of regeneration and putting a living systems approach front and centre.
One great example is Rewilding Europe, a non-profit organisation working across 10 European landscapes to restore nature and biodiversity. Its work ranges from habitat recovery to bringing iconic species back from the brink of extinction. In 2025 alone, the European Wildlife Comeback Fund supported 23 wildlife reintroduction programmes, including projects in the Affric Highlands in Scotland, the Iberian Highlands and the Danube Delta to name a few.
Through Wilder Places, Rewilding Europe has created a marketplace for nature-positive travel experiences, bringing together local operators and guides to help visitors explore these recovering landscapes in an immersive way.
Having a living systems lens sharpens the purpose of tourism not to act in silo but create net positive impacts for people, planet and biodiversity. With such a remit, growth is responsible, communities have a voice and where equity is built in by design.
Emerging destinations are equally invested in regeneration. In Saudi Arabia, Red Sea Global has built its development model around a Regenerative Tourism Blueprint, with a target of 30% net conservation benefit by 2040. It encompasses coral relocation, mangrove planting and seagrass restoration, powered entirely by renewable energy, supporting farmer through sustainable sourcing— proof that growth, climate and equity can be designed from the outset, not retrofitted after the fact.
Future full of insights
There are exciting plans for Travel Forward, as it is launching a membership programme where Impact Insights will feature as part of its core offer. Members spanning destinations and travel businesses will convene monthly to forge the future of travel. Ensuring the wellbeing of places, people and planet will be the driving force of the programme, making impact insights action oriented, creating concrete mechanisms for positive change. Travel Forward also offers free capacity building for DMOs through its Destination Climate Champions programme, with the goal of driving climate literacy in preparation for implementing a climate action plan.
If you’re interested in purpose-driven data and trends, you can get in touch by email at caroline.bremner@travel-forward.org or message me on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/in/carolinebremner1) for further impact-inspired insight!
Caroline Bremner is a strategic advisor with 30 years’ worth of experience in international market research, data and intelligence, specialising in travel and tourism. She advises global brands and destinations on how to navigate the new travel normal, embrace consumer trends, digitalisation and sustainable innovation for business success. She has written and spoken extensively about the future of travel.
Caroline’s recent book ‘Future-Proofing Travel: How to Create a Resilient and Sustainable Industry’ was published in March 2025 by Kogan Page. Future-proofing Travel shows how travel companies and destinations are currently adapting their practices to be more impact conscious while elevating the traveller experience.
Over 1996-2025, Caroline held a variety of roles at Euromonitor International including Senior Head of Travel and Tourism Research, speaking around the world about travel trends and advising global brands.
Caroline launched Caroline Bremner Associates in January 2026, a global travel and tourism research consulting firm working with travel businesses and destinations, associations and non-profits. Caroline acts as a Data Insights Specialist to Travel Forward (formerly The Travel Foundation).
In 2018, she was a recipient of a Celebrating Her award from ITB Berlin and the Institute for Peace Through Tourism for empowered women in travel and tourism.
Caroline lives in Edinburgh, Scotland with her family.